2006 Jays Disappoint But Show Promise?

[dougiejays]

It’s progress.

For the first time since 2001 the Blue Jays didn’t lose 100 games this season. It’s not a pretty number, by any stretch of the imagination, but 96 losses marks an 11-game improvement from 2005. It falls well short of the .500 mark set out by GM Doug Davis as the team’s goal before the season, however:

“Obviously, in spring training, you’re always looking through rose-coloured glasses a little bit.” Davis admitted in his 2006 post-mortem press conference. “It was a legitimate goal, and certainly I saw growth in that direction, but it’s not the kind of thing you’re going to go out of your way to chase. We prioritized bringing some young players along and I’m really, really happy with the growth we’ve seen out of our pitching staff.”

The pitching staff indeed showed a marked improvement in 2006, particularly from the starting rotation – and crucially, from key members of the starting rotation. Jeff Austin ranked 10th in the league with a 3.18 ERA and Delvin James came in right behind him with a 3.31 mark, and while ostensible ace Cliff Lee saw his ERA rise almost a full run to 4.13 after an encouraging 3.20 mark a season ago, it’s still a marked improvement over where this staff rated two years ago. All three pitchers also logged over 200 innings, and with all three still in their late 20s, there’s still hope they could help form the core of a rotation once the Jays turn competitive again.

As far as the youth movement goes, it was a bit of a mixed bag. Four rookies saw major time in the bigs in 2006, and of the four Franklin Gutierrez was probably the standout. The defensive stalwart started 144 games, all but a few in center field, and managed to post a .289 batting average and 33 stolen bases en route to establishing himself as the club’s leadoff hitter by the end of the season. Neither his power nor his plate discipline seems likely to blow anyone away, but if he can remain a Gold-Glove contender in center field, an average big-league bat might be good enough for him to craft a solid big-league career.

Fellow rookie Adam Lind’s season was rockier: the first baseman hit just .246 with a sub-.300 OBP and only 8 homers in 147 games. His defense was a bit better than advertised at first base, but as a corner player he will certainly need to perform better in the batter’s box if he wants to stay in the bigs.

The bullpen saw a similar case of two rookies with divergent seasons. Leo Nunez logged a 2.40 ERA in 45 innings, and while he allowed 33 walks in those innings against just 31 strikeouts – certainly a troublesome ratio – opponents hit only .169 against him with 3 home runs all season, allowing him to overcome those control problems. Lefty Sean Marshall wasn’t so lucky, however. Like Nunez, he allowed 33 walks in virtually the same number of innings (44.2), but he was slightly more hittable (.210 BAA) and was victimized by 8 homers in that span, leaving him with an unsightly 5.44 ERA for the season.

Toronto’s biggest weakness in 2006 was – yet again – an anemic offense. The team finished 26th in the majors in runs scored, and were particularly victimized by an awful infield offensively. In addition to Lind’s disappointing showing, free agent shortstop Fernando Vina posted just a .206 BA and .580 OPS, while Marty Malloy and Alex Cintron each a posted a sub-.600 OPS while splitting second base duties. Third baseman Kevin Orie performed a little better, logging a .279 batting average, though a near-complete absence of power kept his OPS to a pedestrian .665. And behind the plate, Willie Morales and Paul Lo Duca performed well defensively, but neither hit for much average or power.

There may yet be hope for 2007, however. The Jays brought back old friend Keith Luuola in a waiver deal at the very end of the season, and he projects to be the team’s starting second baseman next season. And while Toronto had to take on an expensive salary in Gary Glover in order to get Luuola back, with several non-contributors or marginal contributors coming off the books – including Damaso Marte, Sean Bergmann, Bryan Ward, and Malloy – there’s hope that Toronto might still have some money to play with over the off-season.

When asked what his expectations are going forward, Davis was quick at the ready with his answer.

“Oh, next year we’ll be .500 for sure,” he said with a wry smile.

[CSCommish]

10!