Post by CSCommish on Apr 12, 2024 20:29:29 GMT -5
So, have you ever wondered who the best players are right now? Not who will be based on potential ratings, or who was based on statistics, but right now, based on their number ratings?
According to FanGraphs, Weighted On-Based Average (wOBA) is a rate stat which gives a certain value on each outcome of getting on base, as opposed to treating all hits (batting average) or hits & walks (on base percentage) equally. wOBA is a more effective representation of offensive value to a team than say, batting average, OPS, runs batted in, etc.
The technical formula for measuring wOBA is the sum of 0.69*BB + 0.72*HBP + 0.89*1B + 1.27*2B + 1.62*3B + 2.10*HR divided by AB + BB - IBB + SF + HBP.
The OOTP5 game engine rates players by providing their projected statistics based on 550 AB, separately against lefty and righty opponents. The game groups the statistics in a general 0-10 scale, again separately against lefty and right opponents and an overall rating, with 0 being the worst and 10 being the best, although batting 2B, 3B, HR, and BB and pitching K can exceed 10 because, in theory, there is no limit in counting stats. For example, a batter expected to hit 30 home runs will have an "8" number rating, although that does not necessarily mean someone with an "8" number rating will hit 30 home runs. Due to league modifiers, inflation, ballpark effects, and other factors, an "8" number rating may result in much less or much more than 30 home runs. That's the beauty of the game. Unlike Strat-O-Matic, there is a lot of unpredictability in the game, but the number ratings do give an idea of how the player is expected to perform.
As noted above, the OOTP5 game engine has projected statistics for a variety of statistical categories, and provides a mechanism to export those ratings into a CSV file (basically a spreadsheet). While not all statistics are available, it is possible to create a rudimentary formula that closely matches the wOBA formula above.
And this is where it gets heavy. It is possible to create a series of formulas, including mathematical formulas and vlookup formulas, to be able to provide a list of batters, ranked by their expected offensive value, and pitchers, ranked by their expected offensive value against. It is noted, however, that the ranking does not take consideration of various character and secondary ratings, all of which affect the players' impact or result of each at bat.
So, who are the best players or groups of players? Well, it really is no secret, but it is neat to see how the game projects the players in a neutral setting. It is even more fascinating, to me, how these veterans are projected today, even after they were first created sometimes 10-15 seasons ago, and have progressed due to how the game naturally progresses player development, how teams have utilized the camping process to reverse PD hits, and, of course, a little bit of luck (or randomness).
So, without further ado:
Top 3 Batters:
1. 2B Jose Vidro, SFG
2. RF Curtis Granderson, PHI
3. 1B Justin Morneau, CHA
What is interesting about this list is that Jose Vidro is, by far, the oldest player in the top 10, by a large margin, and yet is still the #1 player. In fact, he is 0.009 percentage points ahead of the #3 player, which is the same separation of percentage points between the #3 player and the #10 player. Wild. Aged like wine, but at age 37, I expect a big drop-off soon!
Top 3 Starters:
1. Ben Sheets, PHI
2. Carlos Zambrano, BOS
3. Josh Johnson, TOR
No shocker here. These guys are the definition of studs. Sheets and Zambrano (who cheated to get here apparently) are statistically tied, with Johnson not so far behind. That being said, Johnson is barely 28 years old, so I expect JJ to continue to climb the ladder and become the #1 starter and probably for several seasons to come.
Top 3 Relievers:
1. Joel Hanrahan, ATL
2. Mike Crudale, SFG
3. Jose Valverde, ATL
I don't know what is more surprising here. That Spencer quietly has the best closer in the league, or that Brian has 2 of the top 3 relievers (he was supposed to always have the best starters, no?) and that the #1 guy sets up to the #3 guy. These 3 guys are far and away ahead of the rest of the guys. I do not see Hanrahan going anywhere anytime soon at only age 30. The next 5 guys after Hanranhan are generally 33-35 years old. That tells me the pitcher's peak years are, well, 33-35. Keep that in mind newbies.
A few silly stats:
Top 3 teams with their top 3 batters:
1. SFG (Vidro, Martin, Holliday)
2. NYN (Sweeney, Johnson, Bruce)
3. PHI (Granderson, Hardy, Ruiz)
No shocker that the top 3 teams are in the NL. The Mets slip into this group by recently signing free-agent catcher Sweeney. As for the NL dominance, it keeps going. The Marlins are #4, the Cardinals are (currently) #5 and then finally the Indians. Yes, the Indians has the best trio of hitters in the American League. Keep the team together, Dale.
Top 3 teams with their top 3 starters:
1. PHI (Sheets, Gonzalez, Hamels)
2. COL (Marcum, Liriano, Greinke)
3. ATL (Rupe, Harden, Smith)
Again, no shocker, that the top 3 teams are in the NL. What was surprising about making this list was that it took up to the 23rd starter to get 3 teams of 3 starters each, which means that there is relative parity among the top starters. More than half the league has at least a top-23 starter, which is a good sign. This also means that braz has a stud rotation, on paper, and he should keep that core together.
Top 3 teams with their top 3 relievers:
1. MIN (Strop, Spooneybarger, Marmol)
2. DET (Soria, Ryan, Williamson)
3. BAL (Broxton, Gregg, Rodriguez)
The Twins, well, OK, I, have been strategically building my bullpen through drafting with late firsts before tearing it down, and packaging them in deals to get better relievers. I just realized now that all 3 guys on my team were all traded for and, fortunately, all signed long term. These guys are young, so it will be exciting to shut games down. I just got to be winning by the time I get there...
According to FanGraphs, Weighted On-Based Average (wOBA) is a rate stat which gives a certain value on each outcome of getting on base, as opposed to treating all hits (batting average) or hits & walks (on base percentage) equally. wOBA is a more effective representation of offensive value to a team than say, batting average, OPS, runs batted in, etc.
The technical formula for measuring wOBA is the sum of 0.69*BB + 0.72*HBP + 0.89*1B + 1.27*2B + 1.62*3B + 2.10*HR divided by AB + BB - IBB + SF + HBP.
The OOTP5 game engine rates players by providing their projected statistics based on 550 AB, separately against lefty and righty opponents. The game groups the statistics in a general 0-10 scale, again separately against lefty and right opponents and an overall rating, with 0 being the worst and 10 being the best, although batting 2B, 3B, HR, and BB and pitching K can exceed 10 because, in theory, there is no limit in counting stats. For example, a batter expected to hit 30 home runs will have an "8" number rating, although that does not necessarily mean someone with an "8" number rating will hit 30 home runs. Due to league modifiers, inflation, ballpark effects, and other factors, an "8" number rating may result in much less or much more than 30 home runs. That's the beauty of the game. Unlike Strat-O-Matic, there is a lot of unpredictability in the game, but the number ratings do give an idea of how the player is expected to perform.
As noted above, the OOTP5 game engine has projected statistics for a variety of statistical categories, and provides a mechanism to export those ratings into a CSV file (basically a spreadsheet). While not all statistics are available, it is possible to create a rudimentary formula that closely matches the wOBA formula above.
And this is where it gets heavy. It is possible to create a series of formulas, including mathematical formulas and vlookup formulas, to be able to provide a list of batters, ranked by their expected offensive value, and pitchers, ranked by their expected offensive value against. It is noted, however, that the ranking does not take consideration of various character and secondary ratings, all of which affect the players' impact or result of each at bat.
So, who are the best players or groups of players? Well, it really is no secret, but it is neat to see how the game projects the players in a neutral setting. It is even more fascinating, to me, how these veterans are projected today, even after they were first created sometimes 10-15 seasons ago, and have progressed due to how the game naturally progresses player development, how teams have utilized the camping process to reverse PD hits, and, of course, a little bit of luck (or randomness).
So, without further ado:
Top 3 Batters:
1. 2B Jose Vidro, SFG
2. RF Curtis Granderson, PHI
3. 1B Justin Morneau, CHA
What is interesting about this list is that Jose Vidro is, by far, the oldest player in the top 10, by a large margin, and yet is still the #1 player. In fact, he is 0.009 percentage points ahead of the #3 player, which is the same separation of percentage points between the #3 player and the #10 player. Wild. Aged like wine, but at age 37, I expect a big drop-off soon!
Top 3 Starters:
1. Ben Sheets, PHI
2. Carlos Zambrano, BOS
3. Josh Johnson, TOR
No shocker here. These guys are the definition of studs. Sheets and Zambrano (who cheated to get here apparently) are statistically tied, with Johnson not so far behind. That being said, Johnson is barely 28 years old, so I expect JJ to continue to climb the ladder and become the #1 starter and probably for several seasons to come.
Top 3 Relievers:
1. Joel Hanrahan, ATL
2. Mike Crudale, SFG
3. Jose Valverde, ATL
I don't know what is more surprising here. That Spencer quietly has the best closer in the league, or that Brian has 2 of the top 3 relievers (he was supposed to always have the best starters, no?) and that the #1 guy sets up to the #3 guy. These 3 guys are far and away ahead of the rest of the guys. I do not see Hanrahan going anywhere anytime soon at only age 30. The next 5 guys after Hanranhan are generally 33-35 years old. That tells me the pitcher's peak years are, well, 33-35. Keep that in mind newbies.
A few silly stats:
Top 3 teams with their top 3 batters:
1. SFG (Vidro, Martin, Holliday)
2. NYN (Sweeney, Johnson, Bruce)
3. PHI (Granderson, Hardy, Ruiz)
No shocker that the top 3 teams are in the NL. The Mets slip into this group by recently signing free-agent catcher Sweeney. As for the NL dominance, it keeps going. The Marlins are #4, the Cardinals are (currently) #5 and then finally the Indians. Yes, the Indians has the best trio of hitters in the American League. Keep the team together, Dale.
Top 3 teams with their top 3 starters:
1. PHI (Sheets, Gonzalez, Hamels)
2. COL (Marcum, Liriano, Greinke)
3. ATL (Rupe, Harden, Smith)
Again, no shocker, that the top 3 teams are in the NL. What was surprising about making this list was that it took up to the 23rd starter to get 3 teams of 3 starters each, which means that there is relative parity among the top starters. More than half the league has at least a top-23 starter, which is a good sign. This also means that braz has a stud rotation, on paper, and he should keep that core together.
Top 3 teams with their top 3 relievers:
1. MIN (Strop, Spooneybarger, Marmol)
2. DET (Soria, Ryan, Williamson)
3. BAL (Broxton, Gregg, Rodriguez)
The Twins, well, OK, I, have been strategically building my bullpen through drafting with late firsts before tearing it down, and packaging them in deals to get better relievers. I just realized now that all 3 guys on my team were all traded for and, fortunately, all signed long term. These guys are young, so it will be exciting to shut games down. I just got to be winning by the time I get there...
